Will Iran Become Another Quagmire?

Political Animals

In my 3rd Podcast Episode ( https://youtu.be/sVfy5g5DMmQ ), I considered Bernie Sanders’ ridiculous call for a moratorium on US AI Data Center construction. The question was “Why is Bernie calling for this?” As much of a fossil of disproven economic theory as he is, Bernie is a skilled politician who can read the political winds and shape commentary. Think about the “oligarchy” tour. These tech billionaires were once the darlings of his side of the aisle - representatives of elevated thinking, not to mention lucrative donors. But many have turned MAGA, and now we must resist the Oligarchy.

Ironically, it turned out that Bernie’s Moratorium was driven by public sentiment which had been created by four AI Doomer oligarchs. None of that mattered because it provided him with a quick way to grab headlines and clicks.

Whenever considering and action or utterance from a member of the political set, it is useful to assume they have a well considered reason whose root lies in the next election cycle.

As opposite as they are, there is one crucial point of similarity between Trump and Bernie, apart from being aged Boomers. Regardless of whether you think DJT to be a great president of a Russian plant, it should be clear that his political calculator is world class. As an outsider, hated by the entire partisan and non-partisan establishment, relentlessly undermined by nearly the entire media and his own party, he nevertheless won the Presidency twice and has created the most powerful and focused political movement since the New Deal.

This was not the random result of gestalt plus charisma. It was strategic, planned, and executed with devastating effect and took advantage of gestalt and charisma.

This man, possessed of an ego that is large even by Presidential standards, was defeated in 2020. The one thing he will not abide is another loss. Defeat in the midterms or of his successor would be a defeat of him. Do not for a second imagine that election calculus ever leaves his mind.

ADHD Nation

One oft-lamented feature of today’s populace is short attention span. This has traditionally been a problem for Conservatives and especially Libertarians, who have required grand exposition to forward their views, followed up by time consuming work and measurement. Populists - nearly all of whom heretofore resided on the Left - rely on quick hits of emotive connection and thusly have a large advantage in elections.

No leader has more quickly and thoroughly grokked and taken advantage of the short but intense attention span of today’s America. He continually enflames his supporters, but notice that he doesn’t stoke the same fire for long. MAGA, like the Left, is not just one block. Different supporters are interested in different things. He moves around the various issues, periodically energizing different subgroups, thereby keeping them conviced that he’s Their Guy.

Meanwhile, his opponents are treated to a continual stream of reasons to hate him intensely. Hate is a terrible thing within oneself, and a useful tool to pollute the otherwise rational minds of your enemies. In the furious eyes of his opponents, everything Trump does is automatically seen as corrupt or insane, and definitely stupidly short-sighted.

Despite being a longtime Trump detractor, Mark Cuban has kept his head and now the Left is coming for it. He has recently been public in his praise for the drug price dropping impact of the TrumpRx initiative. His postings have been reasonable and cogent, without a hint of him suddenly becoming a MAGA fan. The result? Attacks from his own side. Do not let yourself believe that this is just good luck for the White House.

Details are Boring

Another aspect of today’s tiktok addled brain is a dislike for boring details and analysis. One of the challenges of doing anything big is the need to slog through mountains of details. Entrepreneurs call it The Grind and isn’t the subject of profiles in inspired leadership. Grinding through the 96.7 million words in the US Code of Federal Regulations takes focused work, without wasteful interruptions by Congressional inquiries and FOIA requests. But the DOGE website (which hasn’t been updated in some time) claims 1.9 million words deleted. In addition to this, each Agency has been tasked to delete regulations independant of DOGE. 13,440 Fedral contracts have been terminated by DOGE. Around 320,000 Federal employees have been attrited. By any measure, these are all unprecedented statistics.

Government approvals for mines, power plants, factories, etc. have been the long pole in the industrial development tent for a long time. Dozens of Trump’s Executive Orders have specifically targetd these regulations, providing Agencies with specific objectives for regulation count and time to approve. Meeting these orders takes considerable effort and would be severely hampered by challenges from NGO’s and other obstructive forces.

All of this work goes on underneath the cover of salacious headlines ranging from a Greenland invasion to Epstein.

Election Timing

It has always been a problem that any President who wants to enact substantive change runs into the pitfall of the midterm elections. They can only get so far in the 18 months from Inauguration to Election. Worse, any substantive change almost always has negative side effects before the benefits accrue. Milton Friedman famously equated deficit spending with alcoholism: As long as the drinking continues, it feels good, even though the underlying situation is worsening dangerously. The cure is simple and always works, but quitting is hard because the first thing you feel is pain.

But what if you could get all the ugly pain out of the way as quickly as possible, then use the public’s short attention span to redirect them to positives before the midterms? That Trump is pursuing this strategy is so obvious that it astounds me how few commentators or opponents seems to recognize it.

ICE, ICE, Baby.

Let’s talk about the most incendiary problem of all: illegal immigration. The number illegals in the US at the start of Trump’s second term is unknown, with estimates ranging from 14 to 19 million. Similarly, the number who left since Trump’s 2024 victory is hotly disputed, with numbers ranging from 500,000 to 3,000,000. The big uncertainty is the number of self deportations and reduction in new illegals attempting to cross the border.

The Biden Administration claimed that new legislation was needed to stop the influx. Many experts claimed that Trump’s targets for deportation were 5-10X what was actually possible due to limitations in the number of immigration judges and other related staffing.

Trump bypassed all this by employing an especially incendiary version of his rhetoric and imagery which included terrifying ICE agents. This alone virtually shut the border and few debate that self deportations increased exponentially. Some Democrats leapt into the bonus trap of supporting Kilmar Garcia - the wife beating human trafficker from Maryland. The furor over this case provided plenty of additional cover for the Administration’s more significant activities.

Massive resistance occurred in California and Minnesota, underlying both the Administration’s absolutist stance and the Democrat Party’s affiliation with illegal immigration. But the polls were getting increasingly negative for Trump, with even his supporters voicing concerns over ICE behavior.

In January, he deployed Tom Homan to Minnesota, who quickly de-escalated the situation and ICE began to fall from the headlines. Firing Kristi Noem furthered the cause of quieting the issue. As long as the Democrats do not find ways to incite even more immigration related violence, the electorate will forget about reported ICE overreach and only remember that for the first time, President effectively dealt with illegal immigration. It helps that Europe is struggling with the same problem, except in the most successful nations, like Poland.

By summer, accusations of ICE brutality will be a distant memory. But the results - such as the “surprising” reduction in crime - will stay with us.

Meanwhile, there remains the possibility of widespread indictments on immigration-related fraud like the Minnesota Somali fraud ring. Look for these indictments ocurring in the Fall.

The Donroe Doctrine

The direct impact of the Venezuelan actions are a reduction in drug and gang pressure on the US as well as an increase in world oil supply. Additionally, the Administration is controlling where this Venezuelan oil goes: more for India (reducing India’s Russian oil purchases), Europe (except Spain who has refused to increase defense spending) and US refineries (increasing US profits), while decreasing shipments to China by over 60%, and eliminating exports to North Korea and Cuba. In short, this helps the US and hurts Russia, Cuba and China.

Furthermore, the proceeds of these oil sales are not going to the regime, but are being managed by Washington. The regime submits budget requests to the US and has thusfar received over $500M. Some of the proceeds have gone to independant humanitarian aid. Importantly, Venezuelan creditors - most notably China - haven’t been paid, increasing our leverage in trade talks.

The initial outrage over the Maduro raid has substantially dissipated, leaving only the benefits. By the Fall, look for news about conditions in Venezuela and praise for Trump having improved life there.

Iran and Oil Prices

Which brings us around to the Existential Calamity of the Moment: Iran. Imagine yourself a political advisor and use the calculus of maximum benefit in the November elections and backtrack how you would advise the President.

An all out air and sea attack that eliminates the leadership, weaponry and weapons production of the source of nearly all Islamic unrest over the past 47 years is a promising plan. Without the weapons and financial ability to support Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, et al, Iran’s ability to destabilize the world this Fall is massively reduced. And the likelihood of Israel initiating any military actions this Summer and Fall drops precipitously.

There is a short term cost in the form of oil prices. But production in the US, Venezuela and friendly Gulf states partially offsets this and releases from the SPR blunts the short term effects.

More importantly, you would recommend getting this action over quickly. The pacing item would be securing the Strait of Hormuz and essentially ending Iran’s ability to disrupt neighbors with ballistic missiles and drones. The President could then declare victory and watch oil prices return to prewar levels well before the midterms.

Of course, there will be a buying spree to replenish the ordinance expended by the US and Gulf States, which will boost earnings and the stock market this Fall. Workers all across the defense and oil industry will be putting in copious overtime, for which they pay no taxes, thanks to the OBBB.

To recap: after 47 years, Iran has the real possibility of regime change; Iran has absolutely no nuclear program left, Iran has no missiles left; Iran has no drones to give to Russia; Iran has nothing left to give to Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. Israel is quiet. Oil prices are back well below the Biden era. The economy gets s short term spending boost.

Trump’s political opponents will read all this and think “He’s not that smart.” The November pudding flavor will indicate the truth. In the meantime, watch for sporadic change in his tone, evaporation of the current divisive issues and optimistic praise issued toward our allies. New agreements with NATO/EU and possibly China will be signed.

Of course, hyperbolic tweets will continue to issue forth in order to keep his opponents off balance. Look through that noise and look for the signal hidden in the smoke.