Rubio Signals the Next Chapter
Marco Rubio's speech at MSC 2026 was a highly visible manifestation of a long-planned transition that began with Trump's speech at the Davos World Economic Forum. The Secretary's speech was extraordinary in theme and impact. Spontaneous applause erupted more than once.
The formal speeches at MSC from European leaders were written before Rubio's speech and thusly in line with the existing concerns about Trump's apparent severing of the past. Friedrich Merz: "The international rules-based order no longer exists."
After Rubio, however, EU leaders breathed a sigh of guarded relief, whilst bolstering words concerning the need for Europe to be strong and independent. Many EU leaders were cautiously optimistic in subsequent interviews.
But why was the speech not just impactful, but important historically?
The Cold War Lesson
To truly understand where the Rubio speech fits, it is necessary to zoom out quite a bit. Throughout the Cold War, the US was the Western Hegemon, providing nearly all the money and security for Europe while those nations recovered from the devastation that they had themselves wrought in the first half of the century of bloodshed. Looming over all was the threat of global thermonuclear war, resulting in Cold War diplomacy being marked with extremely careful - even delicate - wording. Leaders began a habit of tiptoeing around issues.
Communism, with all of its imperialism and belligerence, marched forward ceaselessly, consuming one formerly free people after another. Meanwhile, the Western Capitalist Democracies sank into a self-doubting morass. Freedom appeared to be slipping into a terminal twilight.
This was shattered by Reagan who correctly called out the Soviet Union as The Evil Empire and urged Gorbachev to "Tear Down This Wall" in a speech in front of Berlin's Brandenburg Gate. It is hard to overstate how shocking Reagan's words were. My Junior High teachers had me terrified that this crazy cowboy was going to get us into World War III. Politically clueless teachers are not a new phenomena.
The result was the opposite of civilization-ending war. Reagan's powerful speeches turned the emotive tide of America and the world. Russian communism collapsed under the weight of it's own lies and contradictions. After the collapse of the Soviet Empire, President Bush the elder acclaimed a "New World Order."
But this new order didn't really emerge. We continued conducting international relations almost exactly as we had since WWII. America defended everyone and paid for everything. Calls by successive US Presidents for NATO countries to contribute to their own defense yielded less than nothing.
America also shouldered economic burdens, with many of Europe's markets restricted, while ours were open. We allowed pharmaceutical companies to give discounts to Europe, financed by gouging the US. The effect was that Americans paid for most of the world's the Pharma R&D. Europe built welfare states and railroads with the savings provided by American consumers.
This wasn't sinister on the part of the Europeans, nor stupid on the part of America. In the postwar period, America was focused on helping the world recover from the devastation of the two episodes of what was really one world war, separated by 20 years. We were so prosperous that helping bootstrap the world economy during the 1950's and 60's did not seem like a burden.
But it became habit. A habit instilled across nations and deep into the minds of leaders and citizens alike. Few even really realized that we were still supporting Europe.
Hitting the Snooze Button
In his first term, Trump addressed this problem. He was received both at home and abroad as a clueless blowhard, unable to understand the nuance that was so well understood by the well heeled international relations elite. Echoes of Reagan's reception were evident to those who listened without bias.
Although his first term efforts returned some European concessions, the core POV among EU leaders and the US foreign-facing agencies did not change.
The Covid disaster instigated all manner of governmental foolishness across the globe and was joined by radical migration across the borders of every successful country. A flicker of awakening did occur as a result of the disturbance of global supply chains that were built for efficiency rather than resiliency.
The Woke Mind Virus infected the Western world with its abandonment of logic in favor of emotion and victimhood. Once again, the West began to sink into self-doubt, blaming itself for real and imagined evils of the past. The great culture that had given the world almost every scientific, technological, economic and egalitarian innovation since Socrates increasingly saw itself as guilty inheritors of the title of oppressors.
Then Putin invaded Ukraine. Eyes across Europe opened to the reality that military threats still exist on their doorstep. As they had been trained since 1945, NATO nations looked to America to fund a war that was 100% European.
Think about that.
For more than half a century, Europe refused to defend itself, safe in the knowledge that America would fix any problem that might result from such childlike myopia. This attitude even empowered Ukraine's leaders to focus on personal corruption instead of preparing for the inevitable invasion by eternally imperialist Russia.
When the invasion happened, Washington sprang into action, sending money and arms to rescue Europe from its own fecklessness.
Doing so continued the tradition of sparing European leaders from taking responsibility for their security. Germany kept closing nuclear plants and importing Russian natural gas to replace the power generation. The reckless foolishness defies comprehension - unless you understand how we acted as well-meaning enablers.
Enter the Dragon
There had always been this idea that a President has limited political capital and had to spend it judiciously. Incremental changes were all that one could expect. Their was niether the energy or political capital to fix everything all at once.
But every now and again, the stars align and you can. After the Vietnam War, the cultural mess of the late 60's and stagflation of the 70's, America feared that the West was on the losing end of history. We had even coined a new metric: The Misery Index. Yet there was enough faith in American exceptionalism remaining for Reagan to turn those embers into the fire that reinvigorated Western Civilization.
In 2024, America was fed up with wokeism, riots, inflation, mass migration, and unresponsiveness in Washington disguised by the same tired rhetoric of "being practical."
Trump seized this moment with his unbelievable energy, brought in a completely unorthodox but incredibly talented team and commenced exploding everything in his path. Nothing was safe from change: no government agency, foreign government, NGO, budget item or sacred cow. The blitzkrieg was everywhere, all at once.
Much of the bluster is diversion - Gulf or America comes to mind - giving his Cabinet Secretaries room to maneuver. The chaos keeps his opponents off-balance and the media oscillating wildly, neither able to muster any organized resistance. Meanwhile, the roots of the government machinery were being ripped out and replaced in the most sweeping changes since FDR's disastrous New Deal.
But Trump's vision reached far more than just shattering the calcified and incompetent US Government bureaucracy. The postwar/cold war mindset needed to be broken in order to allow for the construction of new trade deals, treaties and rules of engagement that match the 21st Century.
Art of the Deal
It is funny, that despite how transparent Trump often is and how consistent his tactics are, so many of his opponents in politics and the media keep falling for his bluffs and feints. The strategy is rather simple. His unbelievably brash execution makes the difference.
First, he determines what outcomes are desirable. If that outcome is substantially different than the status quo - particularly if the underlying principles are in need of change - then he moves to step 2.
He brings up the point and gets the protagonists into the open to state their position.
Then a confusing blast of rhetoric issues forth. It is always a mixture of the relevant, the irrelevant and ludicrous, including threats, accusations, wild claims. This disorients nearly everyone, as the media scrambles to attempt to debunk whatever it can. If any of the specific ridiculous items hits a nerve - remember the sombreros? - he presses harder, further disorienting the opposition.
Underneath all of that, the foundational landscape of the negotiation are shifting. The counterparties begin considering possibilities they would never countenance before. This is where the genius actually happens. Rather than jump in to capitalize, he'll move to another item. The pause causes the counterparties to cool down on that particular topic. His people quietly begin talks.
If this doesn't bear fruit, return to Step 3.
If the counterparties are sufficiently ready to deal, he'll meet with them and finalize a deal.
Effusive praise for the erstwhile enemies pours out, heralding a new beautiful deal that is good for the American people.
This is exactly what happened with Greenland. America got everything it would have wanted, at the cost of nothing more than words. NATO agreed that Greenland's defense is the responsibility of all NATO allies, not just Denmark and the US.
This is exactly how he got all NATO allies, except Spain, to agree to spend 5% of their GDP on defense. This, in the face of a half dozen Presidents failing to get that number significantly over 1%.
Davos and Munich
After nearly a year of hammering Europe in every way possible, Davos saw the start of the shift. The other leaders came in armed for a fight, their backs up, national pride enraged. Speeches were given, fired by the desire to not be bullied. Even weaklings like Canada's Carney sounded like statesmen. Our allies proclaimed themselves strong and self-reliant, denying ebing vassals of the American Hegemon. They were proud and motivated to stand on their own.
Which is exactly what Trump had been working to make happen.
And what did Trump do? He emphasized that Europe must not back down from their 5% promises. That Europe must be strong and independent of the US. He proclaimed American love for Europe. Tough love, but love nonetheless.
Confusion ensued.
Rubio then landed the plane in Munich. Europe has re-united and committed to stop being the welfare child of the American taxpayer. Rubio stated what was always true: America is the child of 2000 years of European history - a history unmatched in the world and fundamentally superior. He emphatically proclaimed that America looks forward to a new, revitalized Europe as an equal friend and partner.
Which was the plan all along.